Why is TPLF waging a proxy war on the Oromo through the Liyu Police?

Filed under: News Feature,Opinion |

By: Nadhii G. Hawaas

This article explores the raison d’être for why the Neo-Agazians – the king makers in the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a.k.a. the present-day rulers of Ethiopia – have adopted a non-intuitive strategy of waging a war of attrition against the Oromo through a notoriously brutal proxy, the ill-reputed Liyu Police of the Somali region; whilst they were rather widely expected to reassess their current policy and attempt to pacify Oromia – a state that has been the epicenter of a historic and heroic popular opposition against the government in the last three years. In my opinion, here are some of the primary reasons.

The obsession to smoke out and defeat the Oromo Liberation Army:

TPLF’s general disposition and military escapades over the last twenty five years, would lead a neutral analyst to the conclusion that it is obsessed, more than anything else, with the goal of dismantling the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and its army. As a result of this fixation, Afaan Oromo has earned the unique distinction of becoming Ethiopia’s “language of prisons”, and Oromia has turned into the killing field of the Horn of Africa, where all sorts of human rights abuses are the norm. TPLF’s various military adventures in the Horn of Africa – from its various illegal military interventions in Somalia to its regular incursions into Kenya, as well as its so-called peacekeeping missions in south Sudan – are all motivated by what appears to be a preoccupation to deny the Oromo liberation army (OLA) a base of operation. These military adventures have been carried out without due regard for the cost in human lives, but they have allowed the regime to stay in power by weakening its greatest homegrown threat which comes in the form of OLA.

There is no doubt that the OLF has been downgraded, partly as a result of these actions by the TPLF and the resulting geo-political outcomes. The OLA has diminished in size and effectiveness from its heyday in the late 1980’s, when it was able to engage two formidable opponents – the Sudan People’s Liberation Army and the Ethiopian army in the west, and the latter in the east and the southeast – and thrive at the same time. TPLF’s strategic maneuver and direct military interventions in the neighboring countries contiguous to Oromia in the last two decades should thus be seen in light of its fixation to deny its strategic nemesis, the OLF, a military base of operation – an objective in which it has succeeded to a great extent, thus far.

But, judging by events that have transpired in Oromia in the last three years, particularly in 2016, it appears that the OLF has adapted to these difficult geo-political circumstances and could be poised to take on the TPLF more vigorously than before. Notwithstanding the misguided efforts by some in the diaspora to hijack the Oromo Protests, there are clear signals that the protest movement is orchestrated by the OLF. This development has shaken the regime to its core, from which it is likely not going to able to recover. The Oromo Protests have put the TPLF in unfamiliar territory, forcing it to react to facts on the ground its adversary has set in motion. Albeit at tremendous cost to Oromo lives, round one of this phase of the conflict between the OLF and the TPLF was decisively concluded with the latter substantially degraded politically and economically, if not militarily yet, invigorating the former substantially. Therefore, the ground work seems to have been laid for round two and perhaps the decisive stage of this phase of the conflict; and judging by its current activities, the TPLF is mightily worried (as it should be) about the likely outcomes.

One of the dangerous policies the TPLF is pursuing currently to foil what is shaping up to be a historic faceoff between its forces and Oromo freedom fighters, is to unleash the notorious Somali region paramilitary group on peaceful Oromo citizens in the east, the south and the southeast. In my opinion, the main purpose of this move is to provoke OLF fighters to come out of the woodwork, as it were, in order to engage them militarily before more recent events have a chance to solidify in ways that will benefit the combatants. Based on certain signals that are out there, the OLF might have succeeded in embedding its forces in certain communities in Oromia, and it would be reasonable to assume that the TPLF wants to flush these Oromo fighters by goading them into battles of its choosing. It is a clever move, but it doesn’t appear that the OLF is taking the bait.

The best defense is a good offense:
The principle of “the best defense is a good offense” has successfully been employed in many areas of life that are guided by strategic interactions between two or more actors. Whether it is sporting competitions, competitions for market, or more consequential human conflicts such as wars, players that prevail are often times those that strike first and knock their opponents off their game plan, forcing them to react. Successful war generals and strategic thinkers – including George Washington, Mao Zedong, Machiavelli and others – have utilized this principle with remarkable success.

The TPLF has used this adage throughout its existence – both in the military and the political arenas – initially against the fearsome Dergue, and later on against all opposition parties, including the OLF. In all the engagements I personally witnessed closely, for instance, the TPLF always seemed to relish the initiative to attack – often with surprising speed and agility – forcing its opponents to scramble to assume defensive positions, denying them opportunities to launch their own attacks. The surviving members of Dergue’s armed forces could speak more competently than I can about the efficacy of TPLF’s famed Qorexa tactics in the battle field.

With the OLF adapting to the aforementioned difficult geo-political realities in the Horn of Africa, and OLA likely getting deeply rooted in Oromia, the TPLF appears to have lost the strategic edge it has worked so hard to achieve and maintain. The Oromo Protests have exposed its weaknesses so unmistakably, sending a clear signal to potential partners or enemies, big or small, that the “dogs from Tigray” might have just been neutered and may not have potent bites anymore. Notice the most recent political developments in Somalia, South Sudan, the European Parliament, and even some corners of the US government – developments that mark that the ground has begun shifting from under the TPLF. Therefore, with no obvious OLF military camp it can attack, and a realization setting in among its senior ranks that its strategic opponent might have regrouped enough to start putting some non-trivial points on the board; the TPLF is undertaking unprovoked military aggressions against Oromo civilians in the east, the southeast, the south, and the west via its proxy paramilitary units, certain that the oppressive system it has built over the years cannot be sustained if it is perceived to have lost its mojo. Thus, its latest move is most likely a desperate attempt to send a signal to its friends and foes that it is in control and still calling the shots.

Attempting to ingratiate to the Oromo a Trojan-Horse named the OPDO:

One of the remarkable outcomes of the Oromo Protests was that it annihilated the intricate and oppressive state structure the TPLF had built in Oromia using the so-called Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), an outfit that was created by TPLF to rule and exploit the Oromo. The TPLF doesn’t stand a chance to rule Oromia without the OPDO serving the purpose for which it was invented. To reinstitute its tentacles throughout Oromia, therefore, the TPLF is employing a number of obvious and subtle strategies including the following: launching different initiatives meant to seduce the unemployed youth; promoting a few “educated” Oromo individuals to positions of power; and most importantly, undertaking moves that might ingratiate the OPDO to the Oromo. Lemma Megersa – the shiny-new telegenic puppet of the regime– is assigned a role of play-acting as the second coming of Tadesse Birru on TV, although he is little more than a pawn in a game being conducted behind his back against his own people.

If implemented properly, the unfolding strategy of unleashing the Liyu police on the Oromo would also contribute to the objective of endearing the OPDO to the Oromo to a certain extent. Here is a two-sentence script for this play: The TPLF invades the Oromo by using its proxies just enough to rile up the Oromo from coast-to-coast; then boom, the OPDO comes to the rescue, turning – contrary to reason and logic – into a “legitimate” Oromo organization that can protect the interests of its constituents. Arguably, this drama has thus far played out as planned by its authors, considering how many Oromo activists have fallen for this cruel scheme. Just because they uttered nationalistic soundbites on state TV, some members of the so-called Caffee Oromiyaa are being promoted as defenders of Oromo national interests by individuals who should know better, indicating that the Neo-Agazians might have achieved some of their short term objectives by making the OPDO an acceptable alternative to a segment of our traumatized population. The Oromo national trauma must be so deep that many mistake the enablers of their abusers for their saviors.

Breaking the thriving morale of the Oromo:

Events that have transpired in the last three years in Oromia – particularly the well-orchestrated massacre at the Irreechaa festival on October 2, 2016 and the ethnic cleansing operations being carried out against the Oromo of Hararge, Bale, Guji, Borana, and some parts of Wollega – are well-designed operations by TPLF aimed at, among other things, breaking the thriving morale of the Oromo and checking the rising tide of Oromo nationalism. The TPLF has always banked on riding Oromo nationalism that it believed could be manipulated at will to exploit Oromo resources, and utilized to engage in a campaign against the traditional and historical nemesis of Tigray – the Amhara elites. When this strategy failed – with the Oromo taking a heroic stand to challenge its monopoly of power and exploitation of their resources; and the Oromo and the Amhara showing some signs of solidarity, even if tactically – it resorted to a war of attrition against the Oromo, foolishly thinking that that would break the thriving morale of the Oromo and put the genie back in the bottle.

For those capable of discerning the zeitgeist in contemporary Ethiopia, however, the writing on the wall is unmistakable: Oromo nationalism has prevailed against all odds – thanks to the sacrifices of countless precious Oromo children – and will continue to develop at a pace determined largely by the dialectics within Oromo society. No amount of treacherous designs by the current rulers of Ethiopia, or the ill-will of those who wish to dismantle it, can derail it from its current auspicious trajectory.

Avenging for the loss it has sustained politically, diplomatically, and financially due to Oromo Protests:

As stated earlier, the Oromo Protests have inflicted heavy losses – politically, diplomatically, and financially – on the TPLF from which it will never recover. Although this is not how smart strategic players are supposed to conduct themselves in high-stakes political games, I can’t put it beyond the realm of possibility that avenging for these losses might just be one of the motivating factors for the dangerous course the TPLF has chosen recently. To the extent that the Neo-Agazians are disposed towards having a sense of entitlement to the political and economic power they are currently enjoying undeservedly (there are plenty of evidences indicating that this might be the case), their lashing out against the Oromo – a nation that has effectively foiled their long-term objective of developing Tigray at the expense of Oromia – should not be unexpected.

In summary, the TPLF is a severely wounded entity that is running out of options faster than most so-called experts of the Horn of Africa anticipated. There will not be any measure it will not pursue in order to stay in power for as long as it is feasible. For now, Abay Tsehay and co. are using Abdi Iley and his UK-financed killing-squads as a “Hail Mary pass” to see if that could extricate the TPLF out of its desperate situation. The OLF is expected to execute its game plan with discipline, focusing on the real prize, disregarding the white noise coming out of the diaspora in the virtual space.

4 Responses to Why is TPLF waging a proxy war on the Oromo through the Liyu Police?

  1. Fellow Ethiopians hey is my take with regard TPDM
    and Tigrie Tigrgna at large, At the end of the day the Tigrie Tigregna
    will unfied as one front
    then you be ruled for the rest of your life for a centuries.

    Dandew Serbelo
    March 8, 2017 at 1:38 pm
    Reply

  2. My knowledge about the Oromos is based on the discussions and coversations I had with the writer and journalist Tesfaye Gebreab (the Gadaa). He is very much committed to the Oromo cause and I sympathise with it. He considers himself as a sole expert on Oromo pyschology and mentality. According to him, the Oromo struggle and cause face internal challenges and problems. The internal shortcomings of the Oromo struggle are lack of self confidence, openness to manipulations and emotionality among the Oromo elites and intellectuals. These are the major weaknesses he is working on to overcome and improve to help the Oromo struggle move ahead. The TPLF considers, manipulates and uses the Oromos as simple tools against the Amharas because of their weaknesses.

    Kaleab
    March 9, 2017 at 9:13 am
    Reply

  3. Oromo,should work for the libration of all people. Stop being stubborn.There won’t be exclusive freedom for oromo without a freedom for konso.weyane is a cancer for everyone and must be defeated in cooperation with others.

    Mustefa
    March 11, 2017 at 2:55 am
    Reply

  4. There are things that are manifesting themselves by coming out in the open in various harmful ways. Old conflicts are flaring up again and again. Hundreds of thousands and possibly in their millions have left places of their birth seeking and chasing peace and opportunity somewhere else. I can talk about it coming from the lot that had befallen my own Itu clan on my mother’s side. The conflicts and tribal clashes have been around for centuries but somehow elders of those times used to find compromising ways to easy up tensions and conflicts. Such conflicts were not provoked or promoted by the late emperor or even that demon Mengistu. The tribal conflicts used to be mainly between some of the Afar and clans from the Issa tribe. My mother’s clan used to be left alone by both warring tribes because we were the grain producers as well as cattle herders. I remember the Afar clans mainly the Asahi-Mara(Asay-Mara) clan members coming to our village picking up sorghum and other edible farm products in exchange for what my clan wanted. One of my aunties used to travel to where the Issas dwell to sell these same edible products in exchange for some foreign manufactured goods such as fabrics and cosmetics. That was in the 1940’s and 50’s even 1960’s. But beginning the mid to late 1970’s my mother’s clan began to be ruthlessly attacked by cattle rustlers who were by then armed with high efficiency automatic weapons they picked from Somalia and Djibouti. Now some of those places that used to be my mother’s Itu clan domiciles are no more. Many localities that used to be settlements of Afar clans are no more. When I look at the Google Map now I see places that I know very well from growing up in the area in the 1940’s and 50’s are now given names belonging to tribes who were not there even in the vicinity. I will give you one example. The place is a railway station Afdem. It used to be populated mainly by our Afar brothers and sisters. That place is known to the Afars and my own Oromo tribe as Awware. There used to be an elementary school the late Emperor opened right after he returned from exile. I remember many students attending that school used to be from the Afar tribe because they are the majority of town’s populations including the area leading all the way to Gowane. I personally know some of those students who had become productive bureaucrats even in neighboring Djibouti. Some of them turned out to be very successful merchants in Addis(Finfine). I still keep in touch with 2 or 3 of them who now reside in Europe. I fully understand and expect that demographics is bound to change anywhere. I understand that. That was all possible until now. The prevailing modus operandi now seems to be such that a certain tribe or ethnic group would be the sole owner and that is it. The problem stems for this psyche inherent in the nomadic way of life. That psyche is the contempt for a settled way of life. Contempt usually accompanies violence. The latest news I am getting from my merchandising relatives is that once again conflicts have flared up. Hundreds have been victimized, mostly innocent ones I may add. I have called for level headed people to prevail so many times before because I know there was a potential for such destructive and deadly conflicts. I had lived in it. I had seen it. The village I once running around playing when I was a very young boy is wiped out of its true colors. If I ever had the chance to go back to the old country, there will be no ‘Trip to Bountiful’ like Geraldine Page had for me. All I can do now is just look at the Google Map and reminisce. What I think the solution to prevent current conflict from going out of hand is to designate the entire area along the railway line as a neutral and special economic zone. During the late Emperor time it was just as such even though it was not declared as such. Almost at every railway station, the population was comprised of residents of many ethnic backgrounds. I don’t remember any, not one, inter-ethnic conflicts in anyone of those stations. It is very depressing for me to hear inter-ethnic deadly conflicts are the norm now. I feel totally helpless. That is why I seek refuge in The Lord The Almighty Our Creator and pray. We should all go to places of our worship and pray daily. We should all pray that Our Creator make those level heads prevail over the evil minded ones. Let’s Pray!!!!

    Ittu Aba Farda
    March 23, 2017 at 9:05 pm
    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *