Seven Point Turn-Around Strategy to Bring Ethiopia Back to Peace and Stability.

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Demonstrators chant slogans while flashing the Oromo protest gesture during Irreecha, the thanksgiving festival of the Oromo people, in Bishoftu town, Oromia region, Ethiopia, October 2, 2016. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri
Demonstrators chant slogans while flashing the Oromo protest gesture during Irreecha, the thanksgiving festival of the Oromo people, in Bishoftu town, Oromia region, Ethiopia, October 2, 2016. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri
Currently Ethiopia is facing one of the most difficult challenges of its history. However, this is a country with world class reputation on resilience and has been able to survive as an independent nation against all odds for thousands of years. As far as EPRDF corrects its mistakes rapidly and succeeds to stabilize the country the best days for Ethiopia are ahead of us.

Ethiopia have formidable historical enemies that have not stopped their sabotage for generations. Though, Ethiopia depended on Egypt – Alexandria for its Abun , the head of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, for about 1650 years and Egypt has been depending on the river Nile (86% of it originates from Ethiopia) for generations, there have never been any shared vision between the two ancient civilizations on how to cooperate for mutual strategic benefit and survival . Instead Egypt has been always suspicious of Ethiopia and has been playing a number of cards to keep Ethiopia weak and in perpetual instability. It has been trying to disintegrate Ethiopia from within exploiting Islam-Christian rivalries, ethnic differences and myths related to Sematic and Cushitic origins of Ethiopians. Egypt has also been instigating proxy conflicts from time to time using Ethiopia’s neighboring countries.
On direct military confrontation between the two countries, medieval time Emperor of Ethiopia Dawit (1381) invaded Egypt and inflicted heavy damage. In 1875/76 the Egyptians also tried to conquer Ethiopia but received a humiliating and fatal defeat in the hand of Emperor Yohannes IV.

Egypt which failed from grace and trampled under the yoke of different colonizers such as Greeks, Romans, Persians, Arabs, Ottomans, Mamluks and the British does not currently have ethnic identity. Egypt claims it is “Arab” when it faces toward the Middle East to appease its colonial masters, where as it claims it is Cushitic when it faces toward Africa to win the black Africa.
The agents of Egypt through their agents have penetrated the ongoing revival of the “Wake Fata religion” that has been expanding following the constitutional freedom EPRDF has given to all religions two decades ago and they have been brain washing the youth of Oromia to riot against EPRDF/Weyane, claiming that Oromo’s are more Egyptians than Ethiopians as both share the Cushitic identity. This is against the constitution that forbids mixing religion and politics but it was allowed to grow with full participation of the ultra-corrupted EPRDF members in Oromia (weekly and monthly political meetings have been conducted in each village of Oromia throughout last year under the cover up of the Wake Fata revival meetings). What we witnessed during the recent irrecha celebration is the ugly face of this political movement, disguised under a religious revival. The big question is why the intelligence of EPRDF could not timely abort it? Is that because they spend their full time collecting rent from the people? Big home work for EPRDF!
Some Oromo scholars are also recently claiming that “Amhara’s are Cushitic contrary to the long held belief that claims Amhara’s are Semitic”.
However, the truth is Ethiopians are all one and the same, despite the language they speak. If anyone is in doubt it could be easily proved through DNA test.
What Egyptians may never understand is how the seemingly weak, divided and under civilized Ethiopia kept its independence and they have been propagating myths for generations to demonize Ethiopia( such as: Ethiopia will conquer Egypt! Ethiopia will dam the Abbay River and destroy Egypt! Ethiopia will march to Mecca and destroy the Kaaba and Islam etc.). I have no doubt that the current riots throughout Ethiopia and the Muslim riots that started about six years ago are/were instigated, planned and executed by Egypt’s intelligence through their agents.
Though, I have full confidence that the EPRDF strategists are capable of developing and executing the right turnaround strategy, I felt to contribute my bit as summarized below:

(1) Effectively manage threats from Egypt and its agents and reinstate peace and stability within the next three to six months.
– Establish “meregagat committee” from citizens for each Kebele and Ketena . Mobilize all EPRDF members to lead each Kebele and Ketena “meregagat committee” and proactively counter and control anti peace elements, home grown or external terrorists.
– Safeguard our embassies from vandalization by anti-peace elements by hiring foreign security firms and installing a security system that enhances control.
– Increase surveillance on all of our borders to prevent any anti-peace elements (trained in Eritrea or elsewhere) crossing to Ethiopia.
– Instate proper screening and movement control of all refugees coming to Ethiopia.
– Lobby hard to expose Egypt & gather support from USA, Israel, African Union, United Nation, European Union etc. On pressurizing Egypt to halt its destabilizing activities through proxy war using Eritrea and its agents such as OLF and Ginbot 7. Explain Ethiopia’s right to defend itself by whatever means against the sabotage of Egypt
– Give Eritrea one month warning to expel all anti Ethiopia elements and cease any activity that destabilizes Ethiopia or face military action.
– If Eritrea fails to comply, march to Asmara and destroy the command center of Ginbot 7 and OLF. This is an overdue action!
– Strengthen intelligence in the Horn of Africa with alliance partners like Israel, Sudan, USA, China, and European Union.
– Closely work with Horn of Africa neighboring countries and timely frustrate (including covert surgical military actions) any Egyptian efforts to gain foothold.
– Iran may be interested to cooperate with Ethiopia to use us a proxy against Saudi Arabia. The Ethiopian government should avoid that. Never support any country which is against Israel and USA. Iran (the Persian Empire) has never been a friend of Ethiopia. The army of the Axumite Abraha that was ruling Yemen in the 7th century was liquidated by the Persian Empire. It will be a huge strategic error if EPRDF cooperates or allies with Iran.
– Advise Egypt to stop meddling in Ethiopia’s internal issues directly or through third party, to stop funding and close offices of any Ethiopian opposition in Egypt and warn Egypt that Ethiopia will revoke all bilateral agreements including those related to the Nile.
– Open communication channel and start genuine discussions with any Ethiopian oppositions that are allied to Egypt or Eritrea and those who are independent.
(2) Reinstate implementation of the democratization of Ethiopia based on incremental administered dosage while creating democratic culture among EPRDF members and the society at large immediately. Support the creation of sound opposition parties that will freely compete in the next election. At least 30 % of the parliament has to be filled by the opposition after the coming election.
(3) Within a year time, transform EPRDF to be coherent non ethnic centered party that represents all cross sections of Ethiopians (Afar, Somalia, etc.). Campaign with facts and figures that EPRDF or the new party is not dominated by one ethnic group.
(4) Transform EPRDF members and official’s alignment with the party motto of “Serving the people burning like a candle “and significantly reduce corruption within the next six months.
• Create strong and independent “good governance monitoring” intelligence unit that follows each EPRDF official up to Kebele and Ketena label day to day activities and takes timely action on corrupted individuals. This unit also has to identify informal networks within EPRDF members that already exist and emerge from time to time to disrupt them timely.
• Salary increase in line to the capacity of the country
• Any member that commits corruption or any crime has to face justice.
• Activate effective performance management system that purges 20% of EPRDF members by their merit and replace them by new blood. Stop recycling/rotating of incompetent or corrupted members.
(5) Radical policy change on land ownership policy immediately
Progressively allow land to be privately owned. Farmers should immediately be allowed to sell their land to government or individuals based on market values. This action will drastically reduce the acquisition cost of land for the masses and farmers will also make peace with the government. This action will address 50% of grievances of the Ethiopian people.
(6) Restructure regional states structure.
Within the next three years restructure the existing regions as follows:
– Split Oromia to three manageable states( Addis Ababa could be part of one of the Oromia states and resolves once for all Addis Ababa to Oromia expansion myths, misunderstandings and conflict )
– Split Amhara in to two manageable states( Gondar and Gojjam together, Semien Showa and Wello together)
– Integrate Gambella and Benshangul Gumth to be one regional state.
– Integrate Harare with one of the three new Oromia states and make it a capital city.
– Leave Southern Nations and Nationalities, Tigray, Somalia and Afar as is.
– To counter the threat of marginalization by the big regional states, integrate the party structure of Somalia, Afar, Tigray and Gambella/Benshangul regional states (separate regional states but unified party structure).
– The widely spoken Oromo language has to be introduced to the education system to enhance communication among Ethiopians.
With immediate effect create a policy that directs regional states media to build Ethiopian brand mind set “Ethiopia and Ethiopianism” on every citizen rather than focusing on narrow nationalism. A monitoring system to that effect has to be established and implemented by the Federal government.
(7) Review the Revolutionary Democracy in line with current and future internal and external developments and update it as required immediately. Avoid any conflict with the Constitution and make sure that whatever Ideology that EPRDF follows has to be coherent with the constitution.

5 Comments

  1. Why and how this poisonous article is published on this website?
    What is the rationale and its effect? Who is the author?

    I suggest this is to be removed from this website ASAP. It is tarnishing the image of your website.

    If it was meant to expose the on-going plot by the regime supporters, this has to be explicitly explained by those who post this opinion here.

  2. Is this the sum total of intelligent solutions tplf cadres can come up with? This is just a seven point betrayal of the hopes and aspirations of Ethiopians. It belongs to the trash bin.

  3. Kalkidan
    What is wrong with it? Instead of just suggesting the removal, give your reasons. For me it sounds very good start.

    Please do not act emotionally.

    What else do you need? Is Shabia not our enemy? Is Egypt not our enemy? Which one do you choose? Shabia or Weyane?
    Shabia and Egypt – are our worst enemies compared to TPLF because their dream is to completely destroy our country. Please those diasporas come to mind. Hate shabia and Egpt more than TPLF.
    If these two external enemies are successful, we won’t see Ethiopia as a country anymore. So, which one do you choose?

    I support this articles for most of the suggestions. E.g. starting negotiating with the opposition including OLF and Ginbot 7-Is this not good? why are you against? Oromiffa to be introduced as our official languate-is this not good? It should have been done long ago> What is worn g with you? Or are you Shabia- Those shabia affiliate are not happy

  4. Million
    First you do not know who wrote this. you are to little brain because of your prejudice. Most of the contents are sound and excellent and if this works- Ethiopia will remain as strong nation and very progressing. This is the right way to go if implemented.

    What is your problems?
    Negotiate with the opposition parties in Eretria and Egypt? is this not sound idea? Weakening Shabia? this is one of the thing that would have been done long ago. Shabia is a chronic enemy of Ethiopia like Egypt. Egypt is know historically as the enemy.
    Land issue-privatisation- is a great idea.

    Working with super powers of the world- that is a shield to our nation
    -Establish a democratic based constitution and election- wonderful
    Oromiffa as an official language of our country- this even could have been done long ago. all citizens will benefit by this.

    So, what is wrong with it? Let us know yours justification nd proposal.

    Do not be emotional

  5. It is true that Etyhiopia is resilient state that cannot be undone.

    Harold G. Marcus in his book “A history of Ethiopia says”:

    “As I watched the intellectual mayhem and continued an analytical truth validating my decision to consider Ethiopia’s wider geographic limits as my canvas fro time to time, the nation had disintegrated into component parts, but it never disappeared as an idea and always reappeared in fact.”

    Wherever it comes from, from tiny states like Eritrea or bigger force like Egypt or any state across the Red Sea, Ethiopia will never disintegrate and disappear. Whatever is happening right now will give way to renewed national unity provided it is handled with a vision free from selfish motives.

    Pesrsonally, I do not agree with some of the points suggested in the article above published under the title “Seven Point Turn-Around Strategy to Bring Ethiopia Back to Peace and Stability”. To begin with the point I agree with. UPHELD THE CONSTITUTION. The constitution, no matter how it was drafted and approved, it is a document on which all parties claiming to have stake in the future of the country can agree on to use as a guide.

    Most people who reject the constitution have not read it or only know about specific provisions they do not approve. My suggestion is to READ it and re-READ it looking for its positive elements. If an agreement can be reached to use it by all who claim to be stake holders (including the government) as a working document, there will be no need for a transitional government which will be filled by ethnic groups or even a transition.

    If ther constitution is upheld by all parties, a new government can successfully take office from the exisitng government via election. The exisiting government should continue until the next election which is three years from now while talking to different stake holders giving assurance both to the international community and the opposition that the next election will be free and fair. If that is done, the good work that were done by the exisitng government can be continued on and people will not lose their livelihoods to protesters. Governments – both federal and regional – stay in office until the next election and enforce law and order including the state of emergencey.

    If movements like the OLF that declared war on regional and federal government and the non-Oromo people in general with intent to separate Oromia persists, then the governments – both regioanl and federal – is justified to protect the territorial integrity of the country. Self-determination is a right guaranteed by the constitution which can only be pursued by constitutional means. Eliminating movements working to dismember an exisitng state under the guise of self-determination is legal under international law including AU charter. The right to self-determination is still secondary to ensuring territorial integrity of a state which international law and state practice upheld as sacrosanct.

    Here is an example. The recent defeat of Tamil Tigers who fought for decades to separate Tamil from Sri Lanka was not condemned by the international community. The only concern raised relates to violation of Geneva conventions relating to the conduct of war and respect of fundamental rights during the fighting. Simply said, use of force to stamp out separatisits is a regular state duty which no one should be afraid to talk about. The message is to OLF which talks about colonialsim hoping that rules pertaining to territorial integrity does not apply to colonies. OLF cannot convince anyone on this issue.

    If, by some miracle OLF separates Oromia from Ethiopia, it does not mean Oromia will be a state in the real sense of the term. It simply means one chapter is closed and another opened. Once Oromia is separate Ethiopia will be cut into its west, north, north-east, east-east on one side and the South on the other. After the separation, west, north, north-east and east-east will be sucdcessors of the present Ethiopian state. These are Binshagul_- Gumuz, Tigray, Amara, Harar, Afar and Somali regions. Gambella and the South will be cut south to form part of the new Ethiopian successor state in the north. With this fact on the ground, a new struggle begins.

    Without the recogntion of the new Ethiopian state Oromia will not stand as an indepenedent state among the family of nations. Ethiopia and Sudan recognized Eritrea and South Sudan respectively to let them emerge as new states without which the latter would have remained as Puntland in Somalia. Despite de facto independence for over twenty years, the international community has denied de jure existence of puntland simply because recognition has to come from a state in Somalia. In fact, even if weak, lack of recognition of Puntland as independent state by exisiting governemnt in Somalia has effectively stopped Somalia’s disintegration.

    Like the government in Somalia, the new government in the new the Ethiopian state that will be created after the separation of Oromia will stop Oromia from emerging as a state. This is for OLF which claims to lead Oromos to indepnendence. The future is rough than you might think.

    Egypt can provide anything it can, but its reach to distabilize Ethiopia is limited. I don’t support the idea of invading Eritrea since that can be the direct and major entry point for Egypt to attack Ethiopia. Eritrea is no risk since G7 and others will not be ready for armed attack before a decade using Eritrea as launching ground. If they do, say in a year or two, Ethiopia can defende itself. The thing is, Eritrea does not allow an attack from its territory for featr of retaliation or even concern that Ethiopians will rally behind the government which will put its interest at risk. Eritre’s interest is land from Ethiopia – nothing else.

    EPRDF’s weakness is lack of reform within itself. The problem is it operates on TPLF mode of operation during the liberation war period. That period might have not allowed free elections of leaders within TPLF-EPRDF because of security risks involved. Since the defeat of Derg, they should have changed how they they work. In every country, leaders of political parties are elected after campaign of leaders which the public freely follows. Candidates for leadership of parties put forward what they would do if elected without violating basic party program. We never saw this happen in TPLF-EPRDF Ethiopia; it is always closed talks and a leader is handpicked. This should change before the next election in TPLF-EPRDF. Without TPLF-EPRDF reform allowing new leaders to come up with vision, they are bound to fail.

    Corruption is a serious problem. Change in that area begings if the government releases the asset and property register of government officials which anti-corruption commisssion has for years. Let people see it and comment on it. Let legal action begin.

    Restructuring régions can wait until reform within TPLF-EPRDF and the next election.

    Hope ther is someone from the government is reading.

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