The Draft SOE did not pass. How? Legal Analysis by Tsegaye Ararssa

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The Draft SOE proclamation has NOT passed even by the regime’s count. From the statement made on the Parliamentary floor by the Speaker Abbaa Duulaa Gammadaa, the bill is supported by 346 members out of the current 539 MPs. Evidently, the number of votes required are 359.333 out of the 539; or 364.6 out of the total 547. Mathematics does not lie. Abbaa Duulaa did, although not for the first time.

And yet, Abbaa Duulaa says the SOE has passed when they all know they didn’t have the numbers.

Again, passed or not passed, it is inconsequential to the struggle. The country has made it clear that they will not accept SOE. Now their own parliament has rejected it.

The resistance continues.

#OromoRevolution

According to Art 93(2), it ought to be calculated from all the MPs because it stipulates that it should be “approved by a two-thirds majority vote of members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives.”

But the total number of members of the parliament are 547. The current members are 539. 2/3rd of 547 is 364.666. 2/3rd of 539 is 359. 3333. From whichever you calculate it, the required 2/3rd majority is not there as they got only 346.

19 Responses to The Draft SOE did not pass. How? Legal Analysis by Tsegaye Ararssa

  1. I know Tsegaye has legal education but his knowledge is seriously questionable.

    How about Article 58 (1) of the Constitution which stipulates that “the presence of more than half of the members of the House (of Peoples Representatives) constitutes a quorum.”

    The first thing the Speaker of the House verifies is if there is quorum which is the number of members of the House duly assembled and legally competent to vote.

    The Constitution in its Article 93 (2) (a) (to reject a decree of state of emergency passed by the Council of Ministers for the first six months) and (3) (to reject the decree for renewal) does not require all members of the House (i.e. 547 or 539 of them) to be present. It is only the gullible who will miss this point.

    The other mistake is two – thirds majority vote is not required to approve the decree of the state of emergency. In fact, it is required to repeal the decree passed by the Council of Ministers. So, if the vote that rejected the decree is 88, where is the mistake is two – thirds that rejected it? You must be brain dead to read what the law does not say.

    Even allowing your wrong understanding of Article 93 to stand, the numbers you posted show that 441 out of 539 MPs which make more than half of all members of the House were present.

    According to Article 58(1), with 441 MPs present, there was quorum. And two – thirds majority vote of 441 is 294.

    With 346 votes, the State of Emergency has become the law of the land.
    Tsegaye, don’t get confused and confuse others too.

    Ademo is a chatterbox.

    Shegitu Dadi
    March 2, 2018 at 7:07 pm
    Reply

  2. Correction. . .

    The fifth paragraph from below in my positng above should have read as follows.

    “The other mistake is two – thirds majority vote is not required to approve the decree of the state of emergency. In fact, it is required to repeal the decree passed by the Council of Ministers. So, if the vote that rejected the decree is 88, where is the two – thirds that rejected it? You must be brain dead to read what the law does not say.”

    Thanks for the patience.

    Shegitu Dadi
    March 2, 2018 at 7:11 pm
    Reply

  3. The latest is that the parliament has passed the SOE with 395 approving, 88 against and 7 abstaining. This shows there is a simmering opposition in the parliament that will eventually grow in numbers as more and more improprieties are committed by the security forces in days and weeks to come. But Ademo should have waited before coming to a wrong conclusion. I thing one very cardinal truth is lost in some folks mind among the opposition. Members of parliament did not get there with even the slightest hint of dissent. They are all committed to the agenda set by the big enchiladas at the top echelons of their bunched up organization, EPRDF. Otherwise, we would have seen them outside like Gebru Asrat, Dr. Negaso and others like them. Almost every member of the parliament has a huge stake in the status quo. They are all fat cats who never seen or even dreamed of the fortune they have now before joining their respective parties and as a result became members of the parliament. But it is in our human nature and individual qualities that some of us can start wavering or even buckle under duress. So there may be present more in the yes group who will start having illusions and some of the ones who dissented now may switch sides as things continue rolling in the cities, towns and villages. So what I would like to lend my two cents advice to Obbo Ademo and others is to hone their crafts, whatever it is intended for, wisely around such uncertainties and report facts not expectations. The old country is an extremely sophisticated society. Complicated at its best, that is. I hope 1974 is not repeated. I hope the current opposition grouped around a myriad of fronts and parties should take a bitter lesson from what happened 46 years ago. Also the mistakes that have been committed during the last 27 years should be brought to the fore and addressed amicably for the good of the people as a whole sans any ethnicity or religious lines. The Republic of Amhara ain’t gonna happen. Republic of Oromia will remain just a pipe dream at its best. It is because of the fact that is painfully clear. That Oromo common citizen will never be able to see days of good governance by struggling for it alone with the intention of going it alone for good. That Amhara common citizen will never, ever be able to get despots that have been bedeviling him/her off its back by struggling alone and going separate ways. That will never be accomplished. You can belch gerersa all day long, you can berate war cry in Amharic till you get a frost bite, there will never be new territories carved out at the whims warlord wannabe’s. If that happens, Our Lord The Creator Forbid, where there are new and separate Republics of Oromia and Amhara, consider we have two more Isaias Afewerki’s sitting on the backs of these noble people. The same goes for the probability of any other new ethnic republics. That is because such status will expose their people to deal with the Afewerki and Kiir’s all alone. The noble people of Amharas will have no Oromos to come for their rescue. The noble people of my Oromos will have lost the chance of their Amhara neighbors to come to their rescue. They will have their own ruthless elephant in their own room pestering them for black milk and white ravines. Now you will have Nero’s in Asmara, Oromia, Amhara and other regions. You know Nero. He never accepted another Nero in the hood. He even killed his own mother in 59 AD. Didn’t he? So these Nero’s will go at each other’s throat at the moment’s notice. Then you can say bingo!!!! Carnage!!! The same goes with the people of the south. They all should learn from the current regime itself. This may sound odd but it is a good idea to revisit how we see the structure of the regime. No matter how we are closed in with this idea that the regime is being led by a ‘6 percenters’, the reality on the ground shows that is not entirely accurate. If I go in one of the rural villages in Western Hararghe where I was born and holler ‘down with Woyane’ it is not Sebhat Nega or anyone of his protégés that is going to put a bullet between my eyes but another person of my own Itu clan who will be just as zealous to do it. To do away with me that is. So individuals like Ademo and others should amend their ways how they look at OPDO and its fat cat members. OPDO was the one accomplice that sent Bekele and Merera to prison. ANDM was the one accomplice that sent its deadly force into Kobo, Mersa, Gondar, Bahr Dar, Woldiya and other places where civilians including a young child mowed down like watercress. Unless a well thought out and clever strategy is crafted to wean away our Tigrayan brothers and sisters from the stolen front they created for a noble cause, the opposition will continue to be painted as dens of bigots and ‘Radio Rwanda’ repeaters. Tigre this Amhara that, Oromo this Neftegna that threat-laden diatribes should be tossed away for good. We should get rid of such nonsense. It has not worked so far and failed miserably. We should grow up, wise up just because those who are in charge of the old country have proven themselves beyond the shadow of the doubt to know their crafts very, very well. They are well read individuals be it in TPLF, OPDO, ANDM and SEPDM. Their predecessor demonic Mengistu was also a smart person in his trade. He had the smartest way killing his opponents but too dumb enough to understand business(commerce). The current ones know very well both how to kill and how to sustain their rule over more than 100 million people, endeared or not. Many were telling me in 1991 that Mengistu is going to be seen with more years in power than the current ones. And they told me that EPRDF would not even make it past 10 at the longest. Ten years that is but it is 27 years now since then and counting. Right? So their prowess in their style of politics should never be underestimated. I remember reading an article on the NY Times about the late PM in which they depicted him as a ruthless despot and at the same rate also how was well read who had a mind of a steel trap for every statistics current at that time. That was why he always had answers at the tip of his tongue. By this I don’t mean he did not have his equals in his opposition but they were not and still are not as well organized as his group in EPRDF. When I read articles and comments about him and his successor on this or other websites, many of them tend to focus on their ethnicity and often how these two look(ed) physically. They tend to focus on ethnicity, the same demon that may send the country and people asunder.

    Ittu Aba Farda
    March 2, 2018 at 11:56 pm
    Reply

  4. Math challenged TPLF didn’t know what hit it when it’s parliament voted on SOE yesterday. This one is for history books with its video, audio and personal evidences. The vast majority of the uprising is happening in the Oromia region, the MPs from that region don’t want SOE, the tallied vote falls short of the required required 2/3 majority, blood thirsty TPLF wants the SOE and it gets it. The perfect picture of today’s TPLF Ethiopia! I feel sorry for people who live under the TPLF rule!

    Habtu
    March 3, 2018 at 8:41 am
    Reply

  5. This could only mean one thing. Civil didobedience is working.

    Alem
    March 3, 2018 at 9:00 am
    Reply

  6. Shegitu Dadi,

    You clearly are butt hole licking prostitute slave of the criminal/dictatorial/tyrannical and terrorist TPLF/EPRDF. Since whence is 1 plus 1 three or anything other than two. Since whence is 2/3 of 10 eight or any other number than 6.66. Basis arithmetic is 110% accurate. As the great Tsegaye Ararssa noted 346 out of 539 fake parliamentarian voted for the illegal state of emergency. Two third of 539 is 350 which is less than 346. Therefore, it is GAME OVER FOR STATE OF EMERGENCY. I know 99.9% of TPLF/EPRDF members and their slavish supporters such as Shegitu Dadi are dumb ass illiterates but I thought some of them know basic arithmetic, addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. However, the horse and pony show at Ethiopian fake/mafia/criminal tyrannical parliament showed to all Ethiopians all over the world other countries that the majority of parliamentarian don’t know basic arithmetic.
    Lastly, since all members of parliament are members of the criminal/tyrannical/terrorist TPLF/EPRDF, they all are criminals/tyrannical/terrorist and their ass belongs no where other than jail and all their properties and all their wealth should be liquidated effective immediately and distributed to Ethiopian harmed by their illiterate and criminal polices/businesses.

    TRUTH
    March 3, 2018 at 3:20 pm
    Reply

  7. Habtu,

    I think your opinion is way off the mark.

    The confusion on numbers came from the speaker of the House who was supposed to know what Article 93 of the Constitution provides.

    For those of you who have not seen the said Article, below is a copy of it.
    “2. A state of emergency declared in accordance with sub Article 1(a) of this Article:

    (a) If declared when the House of Peoples’ Representatives is in session, the decree shall be submitted to the House within forty-eight hours of its declaration. The decree, if not approved by a two-thirds majority vote of members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives, shall be repealed forthwith.

    (b) . . .

    3. A state of emergency decreed by the Council of Ministers, if approved by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, can remain in effect up to six months. The House of Peoples’ Representatives may, by a two-thirds majority vote, allow the state of emergency proclamation to be renewed every four months successively.”

    This means there was no need for the Speaker of the House to call for vote to approve the decree declared by the Council of Ministers. Instead, since this is a new state of emergency decree, the vote should have been to reject it. The Constitution’s terminology is “not to approve”). Once MPs vote to reject the decree fails to meet the two-thirds vote required, the Speaker of the House should have declared the decree stands. Again to use the Constitution’s terminology, the Speaker should have simply announced that it not repealed.
    Since the MPs who voted against the decree are reportedly 88 which is way below the two-thirds vote required to repeal the decree, it has become the law of the country. That’s why Article 93 (3) calls it Proclamation (subject to its publication on the Negarit Gazeta by the president).

    As somebody said above, what is needed to have quorum in the house is a simple majority. Article 58(1) of the constitution confirms this. The presence of more than half of the members of the House is the presence of 50% +1. If 441 out of 547 or 539 were present as the session, they are well over 50%+1. To be exact, 50%+1 of 539 is 270 which would have been enough to conduct the session.

    All things considered, the decree has not been rejected and soon will become law.

    As the saying goes, rather than “cry on spilled milk”, the opposition might be better off if it works to increase the number of MPs who voted to reject the decree. Once the six months lapse and if the Council decides to continue with the state of emergency, it needs to obtain renewal of the proclamation by two-thirds vote of the House members. This time, it is vote for approval to renew as opposed to the first vote which was to reject. It is sad that the opposition is releasing misleading information that undermines its credibility rather than think in terms of six months and beyond.

    More importantly, it is necessary to realize that Article 93(4) gives the House a role in matters of enforcement of the state of emergency. The House can overlook if the Council of ministers have “all necessary power to protect the country’s peace and sovereignty, and to maintain public security, law and order.” All necessary power suggests some kind of limit on the possible use of unnecessary power.

    The House can also supervise if certain rights the constitution says cannot be suspended even under a state of emergency are actually suspended and force the Council to lift the suspension. The House is required by the constitution to establish a State of Emergency Inquiry Board with the power to make public the names of all individuals arrested with the reasons for their arrest; to inspect and follow up that no measure taken during the state of emergency is inhumane; to recommend corrective measures in case of inhumane treatment; to ensure the prosecution of perpetrators of inhumane acts; to submit its views to the House on a request to extend the duration of the state of emergency.

    So, what would the opposition do? Release false and misleading information just to make some people in the government mad or work within and out of the system for the betterment of the lives of people in the country?

    What would Habtu and his likes do?

    Let’s wait and see.

    Dembelal Negn
    March 3, 2018 at 7:10 pm
    Reply

  8. TRUTH,

    Call whatever you want Tsegaye, but show some civility in interacting with others like me. I’m not the kind of “guy” who takes shit and walk away.

    I criticised Tsegaye not because of the numbers he clearly got very wrong. Over a quarter century since he graduated from law school, I can guess he can only read numbers but not compute them. So, what do you expect from a functional illiterate in numbers? Nothing.

    My opinion was directed to Tsegaye’s comment dressed in legal garb. There was nothing personal in it. You can see it again if you want and write back if you find anything otherwise.

    Dembelal Negn has given you more than adequate explanation on the provisions of the constitution in a language understandable by a layman like you. I do not want to repeat what Dembelal Negn has said. Probably, you’ll have to read it again and again to to fully comprehend it, but it’s worth trying to comprehend than pretend to know it. Ignorance should not shame; rather encourage striving to learn.

    I wrote to express my outrage in Tsegaye’s wrong and misleading reference to the constitution. Since he has become the darling of diaspora media for political agitation, I felt that he should be unmasked as someone who has lost his professional and ethical compass.

    I think Tsegaye should come out of the closet to openly admit that his numbers were fudged and apologize the larger public who were misled even if it was for few hours.

    You should also apologize – primarily to me.

    Bye for now.

    Shegitu Dadi
    March 4, 2018 at 10:53 am
    Reply

  9. The TPLF guys or beneficiaries using the aliases; Shegitu Dadi,Dembelal Negn and Ittu Aba Farda should know that the so called TPLF parliament is a rubber stamp one.
    It has been pretty clear in the past 27 years of the fascist and repressive rule of the TPLF that the front bends and breaks its own constitution and laws. The TPLF is now weaker than ever before, in disarray and has decided to rule by decree. The voting it carried out in its rubber stamp parliament was to get some legal cover for its crimes and implicate its cadres there. But some of them consulted their conscience and voted against complicity in the crimes against humanity. The fact that the TPLF has failed despite its intimidation, to ensure complete compliance and a 100% vote itself is a significant set back to its rule. Its authority is facing formidable challenges and will not have it all its way as before. The passing or rejection in the rubber stamp parliament does not matter as the TPLF is already determined to do away with its bogus decentralization and impose direct military rule to squash the popular uprisings.

    Ermias
    March 4, 2018 at 2:32 pm
    Reply

  10. Negn,
    Your attempted Ethiopian constitution based justification is neither just nor constitutional! A constitution which allows the speaker of a house or any authority for that matter corrects an alleged miscount of votes via media orders beats the hell out of anyone with common sense. That is exactly what Ada Dula did and he is open for critics now. Deal with it!

    Secondly, the SoE didn’t work last time and why do you think will work this time around? Nothing significant has changed in the country. It has nothing to do with opposition, it all has to do with TPLF and company. They are ordering the same remedy for old ailment! OPDO wants to try something new, and they should be allowed to do it!

    Habtu
    March 5, 2018 at 2:52 am
    Reply

  11. Cheating,lying and scandals are norms and merits in the TPLF world. The TPLF gangs have panicked,gone wild and are violating their own constitution making it null and void. The direct martial adminstration they have imposed is in reality the suspension or repealing of the constitution. The next steps the TPLF gangs will likely take is to set up martial courts where they will convict and jail those they will arrest.

    Daba
    March 5, 2018 at 9:10 am
    Reply

  12. Habtu,

    THe decree on the state of emergecy has the approval of the HPR which ever number is seen. What the Speaker of the House said was the decree is approved by 346 votes. If 441 MPs were present at the session (346 who voted to approve of the decree) + 88 who voted to reject the decree + 7 abstained), two-thirds of 441 is 294. Since 346 is much greater than 294, the decree is approved.

    The two-thirds cannot be calculated out of 539 because quorum was not full. What the constitution in its article 58(1) requires to hold session is simple majority (which is 50% +1). 50% +1 of 539 is 270. Since 441 were present and 441 is more than 270, there was quorum to concuct the session.

    Article 59 (1) sanctions vote of the members present and voting. In this case, MPs present and voting are 441 and not 539. Two – thirds vote were to be calculated out of 441 as I did and not out of 539 as Tsegaye did.

    In any case, even by taking the revised numbers into account (which is 490), two- thirds of 490 is 227 still below the number of MPS that approved the decree (346).

    Which ever way you do the math, the decree continues to be the law of the country.

    My suggestion to you and others is the following.

    “As the saying goes, rather than “cry on spilled milk”, the opposition might be better off if it works to increase the number of MPs who voted to reject the decree. Once the six months lapse and if the Council decides to continue with the state of emergency, it needs to obtain renewal of the proclamation by two-thirds vote of the House members. It is sad that the opposition is releasing misleading information that undermines its credibility rather than think in terms of six months and beyond.

    More importantly, it is necessary to realize that Article 93(4) gives the House a role in matters of enforcement of the state of emergency. The House can overlook if the Council of ministers have “all necessary power to protect the country’s peace and sovereignty, and to maintain public security, law and order.” All necessary power suggests some kind of limit on the possible use of unnecessary power.

    The House can also supervise if certain rights the constitution says cannot be suspended even under a state of emergency are actually suspended and force the Council to lift the suspension. The House is required by the constitution to establish a State of Emergency Inquiry Board with the power to make public the names of all individuals arrested with the reasons for their arrest; to inspect and follow up that no measure taken during the state of emergency is inhumane; to recommend corrective measures in case of inhumane treatment; to ensure the prosecution of perpetrators of inhumane acts; to submit its views to the House on a request to extend the duration of the state of emergency.

    So, what would the opposition do? Release false and misleading information just to make some people in the government mad or work within and out of the system for the betterment of the lives of people in the country?

    What would Habtu and his likes do?

    Let’s wait and see.

    Dembelal Negn
    March 6, 2018 at 11:25 am
    Reply

  13. Negn,
    I though you were matured! Any one who writes the following can’t be….
    “THe decree on the state of emergecy has the approval of the HPR which ever number is seen. What the Speaker of the House said was the decree is approved by 346 votes. If 441 MPs were present at the session (346 who voted to approve of the decree) + 88 who voted to reject the decree + 7 abstained), two-thirds of 441 is 294. Since 346 is much greater than 294, the decree is approved.”

    I rest my case.

    Habtu
    March 7, 2018 at 11:21 am
    Reply

  14. Shegitu Dadi,

    IF NONE OF THE 6 STATEMENTS BELOW DESCRIBE YOU, I SINCERELY APPOLOGIZE FROM THE BOTTOM OF MY HEART.
    IF ANY ONE OF THE 6 BELOW DESCRIBE YOU, I STAND BY MY DESCRIPTION OF YOU AND YOU LIKES AS, “Butt hole licking, shit eating, impotent, prostitute slaves of terrorist/tyrannical/criminal TPLF/EPRDF.”

    1. Any Ethiopian who supports TPLF/EPRDF at any level/capacity.
    2. Any diaspora who invests in Ethiopia at any level/capacity. The only exception is an investment/business that competes with the 99.9% of businesses/investments in Ethiopia that are owned my members of TPLF/EPRDF and their supporters.
    3. Any Ethiopian who believes in the legitimacy of TPLF/EPRDF.
    4. Any Ethiopian who has any trace of hope in the reformability of TPLF/EPRDF. In other wards, anyone who thinks come hell or high water, TPLF/EPRDF will change their evil/undemocratic, dictatorial ways and become civilized and democratic.
    5. Any Ethiopian who thinks Ethiopian Constitution has any legitimacy and is legal. Any Ethiopian who does not think that Ethiopian constitution is piece of trash, illegal and the papers it is written on is not even good enough for wiping TPLF/EPRDF supporters shit hole.
    6. Any Ethiopian who is not willing to overthrow/disobey/disable/impoverish/sabotage TPLF/EPRDF or support the patriotic, fearless warriors who are working day and night to overthrow/disobey/disable/impoverish the evil TPLF/EPRDF.

    TRUTH
    March 7, 2018 at 3:20 pm
    Reply

    • Dear Truth
      You are such a nasty and idot person I have ever come to read from.

      May be you are not an Ethiopian. You are so silly stupid because you are trying to impose on people to accept your way.

      dadi
      March 8, 2018 at 4:45 am
      Reply

    • Dear Truth
      Look at people of integrity such as Shigute, Ittu and how they respond and present their logic. We need such people to lead us not a person of emotion like you. Indeed arrogants such as you are responsible for the messes of our country

      dadi
      March 8, 2018 at 4:47 am
      Reply

  15. Dadi,

    You proudly announced to the whole world that you are one of the millions of Ethiopians who are, “Butt hole licking, shit eating, impotent, prostitute slaves of terrorist/tyrannical/criminal TPLF/EPRDF.”

    The truth really hurts very very bad doesn’t it. The truth has kicked your ass, whacked you and knocked you out cold/unconscious. DO NOT EVER MESS WITH THE TRUTH AGAIN OR ELSE. NEXT TIME YOU MESS WITH THE TRUTH, YOU WILL NOT GET UP FROM YOUR UNCONSCIOUS STATE AND YOU WILL DIE. LONG LIVE DIDI.
    On the other hand my advice to you and your prostitute/slave buddies is to embrace, support and fight for the truth 110% of the time. Because the TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE FROM MY YOUR PROSTITUTION, INFERIORIY COMPLEX, ILLITERACY, SLAVERY AND CONSTANT DELUTIONAL STATE.

    TRUTH
    March 8, 2018 at 6:10 pm
    Reply

  16. Typo correction on my prior post on March 8. Sorry.
    The last sentence should read as follows after taking out MY,
    “Because the TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE FROM YOUR PROSTITUTION, INFERIORIY COMPLEX, ILLITERACY, SLAVERY AND CONSTANT DELUTIONAL STATE.”

    TRUTH
    March 9, 2018 at 3:22 pm
    Reply

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